No Turn Around Tuesday trade today as the bias remains bullish lead by wheat.  Overnight trade was all Ag markets work firmer before fading in the early trade.  The wheat markets of both Chicago & KC managed to punch through their respective 100 days following a drier forecast for the HRW region.  Yesterdays crop conditions showed a 5% drop in G/E with most moving into the P/VP category in the HRW regions.  KS now shows conditions barely above avg as a trend or below reality sets in for the crop.  Keep an eye on these wheat markets as a leading indicator for first corn, then beans as the MA and charts are setting up similar.  A close above the 100 days in wheat could well lead the path for first corn (CN 100 day 464 & CZ at 480).  Should corn in fact follow suit this then could make way for soybeans (SN 1236 & SX 1197).  

CN rests near its highs spending most of the trade in positive territory following it confirmed breakout for OC and now NC on move today.  This setup keeps the picture positive and will continue to keep the pressure on the funds.  

SN looks to close positive confirming a breaking of the short term downtrend, but is running into resistance at the 20 (1184) & 50 (1185) just as corn did before it.  The fact that corn managed a move above gives indications that beans could soon follow.  Oil continues to pull off its 3 year lows met Friday and some support is being seen for the Oil share near 39% as it has moved into an uptrend channel.  Meal is working to break through resistance as it treks towards its 100 day (357.8).  This math will also be important for soybeans to test their 100 day.  

No flash sales today or this week so far following steady flow out of Mexico last week.  US YC FOB values remain competitive for May-June, though farmer selling in Brazil as worked them much closer for June forward as the trade waits for better progress out of Argentina.  Similar to corn active farmer selling has helped stabilize YSB values out of Brazil keeping them the cheapest origin.  Yesterdays export inspections continue to confirm a minimal export program exists out of the Gulf and 0 for PNW.  

Mato Grosso State Agency IMEA reports that Second Season corn seeding fell 10% compared to LY.  Mato Grosso historically accounts for 45% of the second crop corn giving indication and weight to CONABs claims of a 9% drop for the country.  USDA est of 124mmt vs CONAB 111mmt crop.  CONAB is seen as one of the lower estimates.  

Trade is still looking for better indication of damage done by the leaf hopper carrying corn stunt disease and its total impact on the Argentina crop.  We might get better indications this week as harvest activity is expected to pick up this week on dryer forecast in the South.  The BAGE and Rosario opted to leave last weeks est unchanged.  Wednesday & Thursday we will get revised looks.  Some in the trade are looking for crops closer to 45mmt.  Between a drop in Argentina and Brazil this should keep US in position for better to compete globally.  A 6mmt crop for current USDA est of Arg 55mmt & Bzl 124 would drop SA crops below LY.  

T Storm Weather Update

Amounts are increased today for the eastern Corn Belt, and confidence in at least some additional rain within the central U.S. is increased starting in 7 to 10 days.

A small area of light to moderate rain is in progress from central IL into wet IN and OH, and will continue today; original amounts of 0.20" to 0.60" are probably too low with 0.30" to 0.80" more likely. Beyond some t-storms Wed.-Thu. from eastern KS-OK to the mid-South, two strong systems produce two rounds of substantial rain and t-storms Fri.-Sat. and again Sun.-Mon. within a wide area, but probably excluding: 1) ~33% of western HRW wheat and, 2) the eastern 5% to 10% of U.S. corn and soybeans. If upcoming rains verify, then U.S. corn and soybeans will likely have the highest coverage of wetness (measured over the last 30 days) when May starts.

Next week, additional systems are probable to pass, and occasional models that show dry upper-level high pressure in the central U.S. are probably incorrect with too much energy looming to the west. As such, we are forecasting near-normal rainfall within a wide area until the true setup can be resolved.

Note that the dry season is probably starting for most second-corn in Brazil, which is not ideal, though only 3% of the crop had under half of normal over the 30 days ending Sunday, which is the lowest of April and May in more than six years.