Free DP for on farm Corn & Soybeans.  Priced By Aug 31

April 17, 2024

Good afternoon. Another lack luster day of trade at the CBOT on Wednesday. Lower wheat trade drug corn futures lower, while the soybean market had a low volume, back-and-forth day. May beans did trade nearly 10 cents higher at mid-morning, but drifted lower from there as short covering dried up. Weather depending, volume likely stays below average in the coming weeks as the US producer gets in the fields for Spring planting. Markets are waiting for direction, whether it be from Mother Nature, the Middle East, or some alternative source.

CK closed at 4.30 1/4, down 3/4 of a cent. CZ was 2 and 1/2 cents lower at 4.64 3/4. SK was 4 1/2 cents higher at 11.49 1/2. SX closed at 11.61 1/4, up 2 3/4. WK was down 12 3/4 at 5.37. This the lowest close in May Chicago wheat since March 15th. Products were higher, May bean meal closed at 338.70, up $3.40/ton, and May bean oil closed at 45.0, up 9 points. Meal had an inside day, while bean oil missed an inside day by 2 points. Livestock markets were quiet/lower, June live cattle closed at 175.32, down 40 cents, May feeders were 70 cents lower at 240.27, and June hogs were a dime lower at 102.72. Outside markets are mostly lower, crude oil futures are trading around $2.50/bbl lower, the Dow Jones index is down 50 points, and the US$ index is down 30 points. Dow futures have had inside day so far as of this writing. Also of note, coffee futures traded sharply higher today and made new contract highs.

Spreads were mostly firmer, corn spreads traded 1-2 cents firmer, while soybean spreads were down a half cent to a penny and 3/4 firmer. CK/CN closed at -10 3/4, and SK/SN closed at -14 3/4. Old/New crop spreads in soybeans made new lows yesterday, and matched those lows again this morning.

This morning's weekly ethanol production report showed daily production for the week ending April 12th at 0.983 mil bbls. This was down almost 7% from last week, and was down 4% from the same week last year. Production was below the lower end of trade expectations, and was the second lowest figure of the year. It is assumed a plant or two likely took some downtime for maintenance as the weather warms up. Stocks were seen at 26.080 mil bbls, which was down 0.5% from last week, and up 3.1% from last year. Corn grind for the week was estimated at 98 mil bu, which was also the second lowest figure of 2024. Cumulative use has reached 3.306 bil bu, vs the USDA's marketing year forecast of 5.375 bil bu.

Energy markets traded sharply lower on Wednesday; crude oil futures traded to their lowest level since the end of March, while RBOB gas futures traded their lowest level since April 2nd. US crude oil stocks in this morning's EIA report were up nearly double what the trade was looking for at 459.993 mil bbls, which helped send futures lower at mid-morning. A lack of action out of Israel following Iran's drone/missile barrage has also led to an extraction of war premium on Wednesday. Gasoline stocks were down by 1.154 mil bbls in the last week, which makes the price fall in RBOB futures somewhat puzzling.

Financial markets traded lower by Wednesday afternoon, following the release of the Fed's Beige Book survey of economic activity. The survey did snot show much of anything new, but reiterated strong economic data in the Feb-Apr period would likely stall progress in lowering inflation. Traders now see a less than 17% chance at a June rate cut, and chances at a July rate cut have fallen below 50%. NASDAQ futures were trading around 1% lower Wednesday afternoon.

Weather models at mid-day have slightly adjusted location for tomorrow's Midwest rain event but are otherwise unchanged. The EU model sees the rain further South into Arkansas, while the GFS has rains more in MO/IL. Rains are seen today across the Great Lakes region and the NE, as well as the SE into the Carolinas. The Delta region sees more rain into this weekend, while the rest of the Midwest is expected to see a bit of drying before a system moves through the Northern Plains early next week. The GFS is wetter in the two week period, while the EU model offers dryness for most of the corn belt into the end of April. Both models continue to see cool air into next week, with a warming trend advertised beyond there.

Brazil continues to start to see an ending to the monsoon season in the North, as N/C safrinha areas will be dry over the next 20 days following recent rains. There is a pocket of heavy precip seen in NE Argentina/SE Brazil in the next 10-days, but this is pretty much the only safrinha corn area that will see any notable moisture. Heat is seen returning to Eastern corn areas in Brazil over the next 10 days as well.