|
Good afternoon. Happy Friday. Ag markets ended the session mostly lower. Commodities remain sensitive to trade-related headlines. U.S./China trade negotiations appear to have stalled despite the temporary 90-day ceasefire agreement made earlier in the month and Treasury Secretary Bessent has indicated progress between the two countries has notably slowed. Part of the reasoning is likely due to the U.S. being firm on tech imports from China. Conversely, Japan and the U.S. are ramping up their trade talks ahead of the upcoming G7 summit in Canada. Adding to the bearish tone are better than expected Brazilian production figures. Safras & Mercado is the most recent firm to increase their 24/25 corn projection for Brazil, pegging Brazil’s second corn crop at 99.78 MMT’s vs. their previous estimate of 95.96 MMT’s. In addition, they increased their total 24/25 corn crop to 139.03 MMT’s from 135.12 MMT’s.
CN ended the week at 4.44, down 3 cents. CZ was down 2 ¾ at 4.38 ½. SN closed at 10.41 ¾, down a dime. SX finished at 10.26 ¾, down 10 ½. WN was unchanged 5.34. Products closed mixed, July soybean meal ended at 296.30, down $.10/ton, and July soybean oil closed at 46.89, down 150 points. Cattle markets ended the week, with June fats closing at 215.475, down 5 cents, and August feeders closing at 298.825, up $1.10. June hogs closed at 101.325, up $1.30. Outside markets are trading mixed to end the week, with crude oil futures down 10 - 55 cents/bbl. Crude and refined products have hit fresh 3-week lows to close the week. The Dow Jones index is up roughly 80 points, and the US$ index is firmer. The S&P500 is down approximately 45 points, and the NASDAQ is down roughly 140 points.
The PCE pricing index inflation numbers for April showed a year-over-year drop to 2.1% which is within range of the FED's target to consider interest rate cuts. Also deemed positive for the outlook of the U.S. economy was the University of Michigan's consumer inflation and sentiment surveys for May which showed 1-year inflation expectations at 6.6%, down from 7.3% in April. Sentiment numbers were 52.2, meeting last month's number and running ahead of the forecasted 50.8.
For the week: July corn is down 15 ½ ¢; December corn is 12 ¼ ¢ lower. July soybeans are down 18 ½ ¢; November soybeans are off 26 ¾ ¢; July Chicago wheat is down 8 ½ ¢; July soybean meal is $.10/ton lower; and July soybean oil is off $2.46/lb.
For the month, July corn is down 31 ½ ¢; December corn is off 7 ¾ ¢; July soybeans are 2 ¾ ¢ lower; November soybeans are up 8 ½ ¢; July Chicago wheat was up 3 ¼ ¢; July soybean meal is down $1.70/ton; and July soybean oil is off $2.08/lb.
Spreads ended the week mixed. Corn spreads were down a quarter cent to up a penny. Soybean spreads were down 1 ¼ ¢ to up 1 ¾ ¢. CN/CU closed at 20 ¾, up 1¢ and SN/SQ closed at 5, 1 ¾ ¢ firmer.
This morning’s weekly export sales figures for the week ending May 22nd fell at the low end of trade expectations for both corn and soybean. Old crop corn sales in the week totaled 916,700 mt’s. Featured buyers were Mexico (201,500 mt’s), Colombia (157,900 mt's), Guatemala (67,500 mt’s) and Japan (214,400 mt's), while unknown destinations assigned out/canceled/rolled 69,700 mt's. Soybean sales in the week totaled 146,000 mt's. Featured buyers were Mexico (52,200 mt’s), Indonesia (27,400 mt’s) and Japan (18,700 mt’s), while China assigned out/canceled/rolled 200 mt’s. Lastly, wheat sales were negative, totaling -128,800 mt’s, unknown destinations assigned out/rolled/canceled 103,400 mt's.
Several countries have begun partially lifting bans on Brazilian poultry imports imposed due to a bird flu outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul. Namibia now only restricts poultry from that state, S Korea will also allow imports from Brazilian areas free of bird flu while China maintains a full nationwide ban. Brazil continues to push for only regionalized bans.
The forecast calls for storms for the SE and rains over OH today through the weekend and mostly dry conditions over the grain areas. Temperatures are expected to run slightly below normal across the ag belt the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return next week with slightly cooler temperatures for early June followed by warmer temperatures the following 7 to 10 days, with a period of above average temperatures.
Have a great weekend!
|
