Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Fri Nov 08, 7:30AM CST

Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower this morning. They closed as much as 4 cents lower on Thursday. USDA’s weekly export sales report showed 487,944 MT booked in the week ending 10/31. That is 11.1% lower wk/wk, but up 15% over the previous 4 week average. Corn exports were 317,879 MT (12.51 mbu) to bring the accumulated exports up to 3.939 MMT (155.07 mbu). Accumulated exports continue to be below last year’s pace, currently 37.16%. The report also showed that China had purchased 123,000 MT of sorghum for the week. South Korea purchased 69,000 MT in a private export sale. Analysts are expecting the WASDE report to state U.S. corn yield and ending stocks to be 168.2 bpa and 1.929 bbu, with consumption cuts offsetting production cuts.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures start off Friday steady to 2 cents lower. Soybeans were 7 1/2 to 10 cents higher yesterday. Soybean meal gained $6.70/ton and soybean oil lost 32 points on the day. Weekly soybean export sales were above trader expectations at 1.807 MMT for the week ending 10/31. The sales were 91.5% higher than the depressed previous week, and 41% above the previous 4 week average. The export sales report stated that 1.559 MMT of beans were shipped through the same week, with was 9.5% below the week prior. Of the shipments 821,268 MT (52.66%) were destined for China. The PRC also purchased 956,268 MT of net new sales through the week. Weather forecasts are turning wetter for Brazil after November 14, just what a crop in the vegetative growth stage needs. Various surveys put trade ideas for the WASDE report at 46.6 bpa for yield and 452 mbu for 2019/20 US ending stocks.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Friday wheat futures are 1 to 3 cents lower ahead of the USDA reports. Nearby wheat contracts lost 3 to 4 1/2 cents on Thursday, with MLPS leading the way. The weekly Export Sales for wheat were 360,568 MT which was down 16.98% compared to last week’s sales and a 45.47% decline over the same week last year. FAS shows 408,500 MT of wheat was shipped out for the week ending 10/31; with the main destinations being Japan (20.95%), Philippines (15.91%), South Korea (15.59%), Mexico (13.17%), and Taiwan (12.44%). Accumulated exports through the first 22 weeks of the MY are 10.766 MMT, which is up 25.47% over last MY’s pace. Analysts are anticipating the WASDE report will show US ending stocks down about 8 mbu from last month, with world ending wheat stocks around 287.8 MMT.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were 17 to 32 cents higher after Thursday’s session. Nearby feeder cattle futures ended with $1.35 to $1.52 cent gains, save for Nov which lost 2 cents. The USDA’s weekly export sales report showed beef shipments of 15,833 MT. Japan and Taiwan were the leading destinations each with a 25.9% share. The accumulated exports for Beef are 672,502 MT, which is down 6.61%. The 11/05 CME Feeder Cattle index was up 2 cents to $146.26. Wholesale boxed beef prices higher again. Choice boxes are up another $1.15 to $238.29, and select boxes gained $1.49 to close at $213.02. The USDA has indicated a few dressed purchases @ $181- $182 in Nebraska but otherwise cash trade has been slow to develop. The USDA estimated cattle slaughter WTD is 470,000 head. The weekly cattle slaughter under federal inspection for the week ending 10/26 saw 640,269 head (0.83% above the same week last year) at an average dressed weight of 826 lbs. The Report showed the highest weekly cow slaughter since week 20 of 2013, and we are on pace to have the highest since that year for the full year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures gained 77 cents to $1.00 for the day, save for Dec futures which finished 47 cents lower. Basis firmed 27 cents as the CME Lean Hog Index dropped 20 cents, to $60.16 for 11/05.. The weekly export sales report showed 33,545 MT were shipped, which was 3.2% above last week, and 32.7% above the same week last year. China continues to ship larger quantities each week. USDA’s pork carcass cutout value was 30 cents lower. The national average base hog price was was lower by 23 cents, closing at $45.21. The week to date USDA estimated Hog slaughter is 1.895 million head. The weekly hog slaughter under federal inspection for the week ending 10/26 saw 2,690,305 million head (4.97% above the same week last year) at an average dressed weight of 213 lbs.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures gave back 22 to 33 points overnight after they posted gains of 48 to 83 points on Thursday. The US dollar index is stronger. Cotton export sales were up 52.09% over last week, at 164,483 MT. With 129,682 RB shipped, cotton exports were lower than last week by 12.97% and were 14.11% lower than the same week last MY. However cotton accumulated exports as of 10/31 were 16.21% above last year’s pace. December options expire today. The Cotlook A Index for 11/6 was back up by 25 points, to 74.95 cents/lb. The AWP is now 56.63 cents/lb, down 70 points from the previous week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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