Ag markets in Chicago drifted to lower closes on Wednesday, led to the downside by the bean oil market which gave back all of what it gained on yesterday's EPA news and then some. Traders quickly realized between yesterday and today that while there's a chance 100% of the previously waved small refinery exemptions get passed on to larger refiners, there also exists, though maybe not at equal odds, a similar chance that 0% of these exemptions get passed on, which produced today's sell-off. In either case, a final ruling does not feel any much closer today than it did yesterday, which means bio and renewable fuel producers are likely to keep operating in the dark for the foreseeable future despite sharp futures price reactions the last couple days.

🌽 Corn Market Update

📈 Prices:

• December Corn (CZ): $4.26 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents
• March Corn (CH): $4.44 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents
• December/March Spread (CZ/CH): -17 3/4, down 1/4 cent

📋 Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly ethanol report from the EIA with data for the week ending September 12th showed average daily production in the week at 1.055 mil bbls, which was down 4.5% from last week but up 0.6% from the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were seen at 22.602 mil bbls, which was down 1% from the week prior and down 5% from the same week last year.

• Corn usage in the week was estimated at 105.1 mil bu, which brings cumulative usage through the first two weeks of the marketing year to 215.3 mil bu, compared to 210.3 mil bu through the first two weeks last year.

• The second of two annual model-based crop production estimates from StatsCan on Wednesday showed Canadian corn production in 2025 at 15.5 MMTs, which compares to 15.345 MMTs last year, 15.421 MMTs in 2023, and the USDA's current 2025 estimate of 15.55 MMTs.

• AgResource Co. reported on Wednesday that interior Chinese corn prices have fallen below last year's five-year low and are at levels that produce negative margins for farmers, bringing into question whether their current new crop import forecast of 10 MMTs might be too high. China corn imports totaled just 3 MMTs in the 2024/25 year.

Summary:

Corn futures were a follower on Wednesday, as lower price action in the energy markets of crude oil and bean oil helped drive values lower on one hand, while a declining wheat market helped to add pressure in the other. We don't have a lot new to report this afternoon harvest-wise, with yields still coming in generally 10-20 bu below last year, but being highly variable. There's a pocket in northwest IA that is reporting yields that are up notably from last year, but keep in mind this area had all sorts of moisture issues from spring on last year which led to losses. Otherwise, it would seem Wednesday was a breather day for a market that just hasn't seen a lot of fresh input besides harvest activity and mostly groundless yield debate in the past few weeks.

🌱 Soybean Market Update

📈 Prices:

• November Soybeans (SX): $10.43 3/4, down 6 cents
• January Soybeans (SF): $10.63, down 6 1/4 cents; inside day lower
• October Soybean Meal (MV): $283.90, down $1.90/ton; outside day lower
• October Soybean Oil (LV): 51.24, down 1.45 cents/lb
• November/January Spread (SX/SF): -19 1/4, up 1/4 cent

📋 Market Headlines:

• Market headlines in the soy complex for Wednesday continued to focus on China and the EPA's most recent biofuel development, though there wasn't really a lot new on either front throughout the day.

• StatsCanada said in the second of two annual crop reports on Wednesday that Canadian canola (rapeseed) production in the 2025/26 season was seen at 20.028 MMTs, which compares to 19.239 MMTs last year and 19.464 MMTs in 2023.

Summary:

Like we said at the top, focus in the soy complex for Wednesday was squarely centered on the bean oil market for a second consecutive session, as speculative and algorithm traders continued to push this market around based on the latest EPA headlines and a gradual understanding that yesterday's rally was likely taken too far, too fast based on what we learned (or didn't learn) from the afternoon announcement. Regardless of what ends up getting decided, there remains a considerable amount of time (likely months) before any sort of ruling is made final, which means prices will continue to be subject to increased headline risk in the short and medium term.

🌾 Wheat Market Update

📈 Prices:

• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.28 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents
• March Chicago Wheat (WH): $5.46 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents
• December/March Spread (WZ/WH): -18, down 1/4 cent
• StatsCanada's production update this morning showed Canadian wheat production in the 2025/26 season at 36.624 MMTs, which is up from 35.939 MMTs last year and 33.414 MMTs in 2023.

📋 Market Headlines:

Summary:

We continue to have little new to talk about in the wheat market for Wednesday, as Canadian production numbers were largely as expected and there weren't a lot of global market happenings to push prices one way or the other. There are rumblings on social media that perhaps crop sizes are possibly not as big as the market is trying to make it seem and that this could possibly be reason for the general lack of farmer selling out of both Europe and the US.