Free DP for on farm Corn & Soybeans.  Priced By Aug 31

April 19, 2024

Good afternoon. Happy Friday. Ag markets had a strong close to the week as Middle East tensions provided cause for a bout of short covering as traders head into the weekend. Midwest weather will be mostly cool and dry over the next 5 days after rains were seen this week. Beyond there, rainfall chances pick back up which looks to slow the US planting pace into the end of April. Technically, soybean futures had an outside day higher to end the week and also held the contract lows, which the US producer hopes will lead to some higher flat price trade in the weeks ahead.

CK closed at 4.33 1/2, up 6 3/4. CZ was 6 1/4 higher at 4.66 1/4. SK finished at 11.50 1/2, up 16 1/4. SX was 11 3/4 higher at 11.61. New crop beans also had an outside day higher. WK closed at 5.50 1/4, up 13 1/2 cents. Products were higher to end the week, May bean meal closed at 343.70, up $5.70/ton, and May bean oil closed at 44.38, up 26 points. Livestock markets ended the week mixed, June live cattle closed at 175.67, up 30 cents, May feeders closed at 242.00, down 55 cents, and June hogs closed at 104.82, up $2.12. Outside markets are mixed/either side of unchanged; crude oil futures are around 10 cents/bbl higher, the Dow Jones index is up 180 points, the NASDAQ is down 375 points, and the US$ index is trading either side of unchanged.

For the week: May corn was 2 cents lower, Dec corn was 5 3/4 cents lower, May soybeans were down 23 1/2 cents, Nov soybeans were down 15 1/4, and May wheat was down 5 3/4.

Wild Friday to end the week. Not a lot of new details throughout the day on the Israel/Iran situation, as the jitters from the overnight headlines have mostly subsided. As has been mentioned previously, tensions in this part of the world are not soon subsiding. With the funds as short as they are, and most of the daily trade anymore being dominated by algorithms/computers, markets are susceptible to volatile short covering days such as today.

USDA this morning announced daily export sales of 216,500 mt's of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 23,000 mt's is for delivery during the 2023/24 marketing year, and 193,500 mt's is for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year. USDA also announced 121,500 mt's of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 13,500 mt's is for delivery during the 2023/24 marketing year, and 108,000 mt's is for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year. Daily corn sales for the week totaled 158k mt's of old crop, and 223,500 mt's of new crop.

The monthly cattle on feed report for April came in slightly below trade expectations for April 1 on feed, March placements, and March marketings, which should be friendly to prices going into next week. On feed supplies as of April 1 totaled 11.821 mil head, which was 101% of last year. Trade hade looked for 102%. Placements in March totaled 1.746 mil head, which was 88% of last year, while March marketings totaled 1.706 mil head, which was 86% of last year. Trad had looked for placements at 92% and marketings at 89%.

This afternoon's COT report showed funds continued to be sellers of corn and soybeans in the week ending April 16th. For the week, managed money traders sold 16,014 contracts of combined corn futures/options, and sold 28,565 combined contracts of soybean futures/options. Funds are now seen short 279,570 contracts in corn, and 167,875 contracts in soybeans. Also of note on Today's COT report, managed money traders were sellers of a combined 49,166 contracts of soybean oil futures/options for the week, and are now seen short 53,295 contracts.

The US EPA on Friday announced that they would be temporarily expanding the sale of higher-ethanol blends of gasoline this summer in an effort to reduce potential supply disruptions amid ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. This marks the third consecutive year the administration has lengthened the summertime sale of E15. While farmers cheered the decision, research has shown there is minimal difference as it pertains to smog pollution between E15 and the more widely available E10 blends. The waiver goes into effect May 1 and will continue for 20 days. The administration said it intends to renew the waiver until is no longer necessary. In February, year-round sales of E15 were approved for a select group of states beginning in 2025.

The US/China trade war rhetoric has again picked up in recent weeks. Today, China announced a levy on imports of an acid from the US that is widely used in food, feed, pesticides, and medical fields. Starting Saturday, imports of propionic acid will be subject to a 43.5% levy according to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. This comes following an investigation last summer that found the Chinese domestic propionic acid industry was 'materially damaged.' This also follows US threats from days prior to hike tariffs on Chinese steel imports. The Ministry said it firmly opposes the US raising tariffs and will take all necessary measures to protect its rights and interests.

Not a lot of change to weather forecasts to wrap up the week; the GFS is wetter in the Western corn belt than the EU model for the next 5 days, with both models seeing rain chances through Texas and Louisiana. The EU model sees heavier totals in the two-week period, while the GFS continues to be more widespread with lesser amounts. In either scenario, a return to wetter weather seems likely for most of the con belt beyond the end of April. Temps will be cooler than normal for most of the US into next week before warming up into the end of the month. Planting progress looks to progress fairly normally, as some get rained out while others miss rains and are able to go.

No changes for South America at mid-day. Heat returns to Central/Southern safrinha corn area in Brazil in the next 10 days, while little/no rain is seen. Rains are seen in the far North, as well as a small pocket of NE Argentina, otherwise the bulk of Brazil remains dry. Rains in Argentina are beginning to be more of a hinderance than a help as they delay harvest progress that has already fallen behind average.