Happy Friday. CBOT ag markets ended the week on a strong note on Friday, with corn futures leading the space to the upside on (unconfirmed) rumors of Chinese interest in US supplies and also the unwinding of short corn/long beans and short wheat/long beans spread positions that were put on following the August WASDE report. We are skeptical of the Chinese rumors based on a recent lack of price interest and find it more likely that this is a case of the news following the market instead of the market following the news ahead of a three day holiday weekend.

As a reminder, there will be no CBOT ag markets Sunday night or Monday, with trading resuming at 7pm central time Monday evening. Have a great Labor Day weekend!

Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.98, up 12 1/2 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.20 1/4, up 10 1/4 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -22 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents
• For the week: CU was up 9 3/4 cents; CZ was up 8 3/4 cents

? Market Headlines:

• Sources in Brazil say new investments in the country's ethanol sector this summer could result in a more than 50% boost in production by the 2026/27 season, adding that supply could rise from the current level of 8.2 billion liters to more than 12 billion liters over the course of the next two years.

• December corn futures traded to and closed above their 50-day moving average today for the first time since July 3rd, which was the last trading day before the gap-lower open coming out of the Fourth of July holiday. This is the first close above the 50-day since June 6th.

Summary:

The corn market saw a strong close to the week on Friday, with buying seen into the close based on fund short covering ahead of the three day holiday weekend. Interesting for next week will be whether the market rejects or accepts the close above the 50-day moving average, though our confidence is growing in the fact that even if it rejects it, the market has likely scored an early seasonal low in recent weeks, with it being the hope of the bulls that we've seen the highest estimates of the year for yield and production. Otherwise, it will be another week of crossing days off the calendar until harvest hits full swing.

 Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• September Soybeans (SU): $10.36 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.54 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents
• September Soybean Meal (MU): $283.60, down $2.70/ton
• September Soybean Oil (LU): 51.47, down 0.28 cents/lb
• September/November Spread (SU/SX): -17 3/4, up 2 cents
• For the week: SU was up 1/4 cent; SX was down 4 cents; MU was down $13.10/ton; LU was down 3.37 cents/lb

? Market Headlines:

• The EIA released its monthly biofuels capacity and feedstocks report earlier today with data for June; the report showed soybean oil use for renewable diesel in the month at 1.045 bil lbs, which is up 2% from May but down nearly 18% from June of last year. UCO usage, meanwhile, was seen at 490 mil lbs, up 5% from May, and at the highest level since December. To view the full report, please click here.

Summary:

Soybean futures were on the receiving end of spill over buying from the grain markets to end the week today, though the products still closed mixed with a further slide in bean oil. There has continued to be little to no news coming out regarding meetings between Chinese trade representative Li Chenggang and his American counterparts, which presumably kept the market from pushing to new highs throughout the course of the week. We've talked it about ad nauseum lately, but there is no replacement for Chinese soy buying and longer term price direction depends almost entirely on whether they bring business back to the US. There are rumors that some of the unknown purchases currently on the books could ne China, but traders will want confirmation of this before placing any further bullish bets.

 Wheat Market Update

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.18, up 7 3/4 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.34 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -16 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents
• For the week: WU was up 13 1/4 cents; WZ was up 7 cents

? Market Headlines:

• The weekly report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed moisture conditions for the Argentine wheat crop were adequate/optimal across 85% of the country's growing area, while more than 99% of the crop was seen rated as either good or excellent.

Summary:

Was a quiet end to the week news wise in the wheat market, with wires having little to report going into the weekend. There are ideas that today's up move may have been in anticipation of a seasonal bottom being scored in the short term, and this will likely key early week price direction on Tuesday next week.