Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Tue Oct 08, 12:25PM CDT

Corn futures are up 5 to 7 1/4 cents in the front months at midday. Heavy snow is expected in the Dakotas and Minnesota late this week, with freezing temps seen dipping down to parts of Northern TX but staying concentrated in the Western areas of the Plains. The weekly Crop Progress report as of Oct. 6th indicated that those three states showed much of the crop still exposed, with 61% of the crop in MN left to mature. The Dakotas have 78% (ND) and 64% (SD) of corn yet to mature. Those States account for 17.14% of estimated 19/20 crop (as of Sep Crop Production). Condition ratings dropped 1% to 56% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 down 2 at 348. Traders are expecting the USDA October yield projection to drop 0.7 bpa to 167.5 bpa with a range of 159-169 bpa. With that yield reduction and an estimated 0.5 million acre cut to harvested acreage, analysts expect production to drop on average by 211 mbu to 13.88 bbu. Any freeze damage this week would be calculated in future reports.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.94 1/4, up 7 1/4 cents,

MAR 19 Corn is at $4.05 1/4, up 6 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.10 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn is at $4.13 1/4, up 5 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures are trading 5 to 7 cents higher on Tuesday. Soybean meal is up $4.20/ton, with soy oil 27 points lower in Dec. The USDA weekly crop progress report showed that the 18 states have 72% of the soybean crop dropping leaves, 15% behind normal. NASS also reported the crop was 14% harvested, well shy of the 34% average. Roughly 18% of the 2019 projected production is in the Dakotas and MN, with some areas expected to see nearly 8 inches of snow. Condition ratings slipped 2% to 53% gd/ex, as the Brugler500 dropped 6 points to 342. That is the lowest rating this year and at a 7-year low for week 40. Ahead of the WASDE report traders are expecting a slight yield (0.6 bpa) reduction from USDA’s September projection to 47.3 bpa. Production estimates are seen as dropping 50 mbu from last month to 3.583 bbu.

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.20 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $9.35 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $9.46 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.56 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents,

OCT 19 Soybean Meal is at $301.60, up $4.20,

Dec 19 Soybean Oil is at $29.79, down 27 points,

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are showing 2 to 10 cent gains in most contracts, with CBT leading the way, up 9 1/4 cents. Egypt’s GASC is tendering for wheat for mid-November delivery, with Ukraine showing the lowest offer. Results are expected later today. The US is still uncompetitive into that market due to freight costs. Trader expectations ahead of the monthly WASDE report show 1.011 bbu in 19/20 US wheat ending stocks. That would be down just 3 mbu from the Sep report. US Spring wheat was 91% harvested as of Sunday according to the Crop Progress report. Winter wheat was 52% planted, with 26% of the crop emerged.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.98 1/2, up 9 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.08 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.44 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are mixed in the front months, with nearby Oct (now in deliveries) up 20 cents. Feeder cattle futures are up 25 to 40 cents in the nearby contracts. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 84 cents on Oct. 4 at $144.43. Wholesale boxed beef were higher on Tuesday, widening the spread to $26.56. Choice boxes are up $1.99 to $213.08 and Select boxes 61 cents higher at $186.52. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for Monday at 116,000 head, up 2,000 head from last year but down 1,000 head from last Monday. Initial enthusiasm about the Japan trade deal is being tempered by the fact that the lower tariffs won't become effective until year end. A total of 666 head are consigned for Wednesday’s FCE online auction.

OCT 19 Cattle are at $108.450, up $0.200,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $110.875, down $0.325,

FEB 20 Cattle are at $116.825, up $0.425,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.100, up $0.400

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.250, up $0.325

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $136.650, up $0.250

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are showing a triple digit bounce on Turnaround Tuesday, with Dec up $3.65. We have expanded limits of $4.50 following Monday’s losses. The CME Lean Hog Index was down a penny to $59.22 on Oct 4. Monday’s USDA pork carcass cutout value was 17 cents higher at $77.92 on Tuesday morning. The national average base hog value was up 75 cents on Tuesday, at $50.48. FI hog slaughter for Monday was estimated at 489,000 head by the USDA.

OCT 19 Hogs are at $61.750, up $1.250,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $67.900, up $3.650

FEB 20 Hogs are at $73.925, up $2.450

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are down 73 to 76 points in the front months on Tuesday. The market removed “China deal” premium after the US added more Chinese companies to a restriction list due to treatment of the Uighur minority in western China (or other factors). This move came as trade negotiations are underway in Washington DC, with the higher level officials talking on Thursday and Friday. USDA reported 83% of the US cotton crop had bolls opening by Sunday. Harvest was pegged at 25% complete, ahead of the 20% normal pace. Condition ratings for the 15 states were down 1% to 39% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index indicating a 323 score, UNCH from last week. The Cotlook A Index was unch at 72.25 cents/lb for October 7. The AWP is 53.36 cents/lb, effective through Thursday.

DEC 19 Cotton is at 61.1, down 73 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 61.82, down 75 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 62.67, down 76 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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