Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Thu Oct 10, 7:02AM CDT

Corn futures are fractionally lower ahead of the weekly export sales report. They saw marginal losses in nearby contracts yesterday on profit taking. The EIA weekly report showed another round of low production data at 963,000 barrels per day for the week of 10/4, up 5,000 bpd from last week. Ethanol stocks were at a 2-year low, 21.224 million barrels, down 1.995 million barrels from last week. That is the largest wk/wk draw down on record. With corn production estimates expected to be revised lower today and a smaller carry-in from old crop, analysts project a 508 mbu cut to 19/20 ending stocks at 1.682 bbu. World stocks are seen down 9.67 MMT from Sept at 296.6 MMT. Ahead of the weekly Export Sales report this morning, analysts estimate 500,000-800,000 MT in 19/20 corn bookings.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybeans futures are fractionally higher this morning. They closed Wednesday with 2 3/4 to 3 1/4 cent gains in the nearby contracts. Soybean meal was up $3.10/ton, with soy oil 14 points lower at the close. On average, traders expect a cut in the US soybean carryout in the WASDE monthly report this morning, with estimates suggesting a 144 mbu drop for 19/20 ending stocks. The average trade estimate for World carryout is 96.46 MMT, which would be a 2.73 MMT reduction from Sep. Weekly Export Sales data is expected to show 1.3-1.8 MMT in soybean export sales during the week of 10/3. Soy meal is seen at 100,000-300,000 MT, with Soy oil at 5,000-35,000 MT.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are 2 to 5 cents higher this morning, with MPLS spring wheat the strongest. Since Wednesday’s mixed close, with Chicago wheat futures steady to fractionally higher in most contracts. Kansas City contracts saw 1-3 cent gains, as Spring wheat futures contracts saw losses at Wednesday’s close. Trade estimates prior to USDA’s monthly update would have World wheat carryout trimmed by 1.34 MMT to 285.17 MMT on average. Analysts are expecting a total of 300,000-600,000 MT in US wheat export sales for the week that ended on October 3. Japan’s MOA is seeking a total of 114,012 MT from the US and Canada, with 60,052 MT US origin. Results are expected later this morning. .

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were 30 to 75 cents higher at closing time on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures closed $2.475 to $3.00 higher in the nearby contracts. Wholesale boxed beef saw another widening of choice/select spread Wednesday, at an unseasonably high $28.48. That is the widest the spread has been since June of 2017. Choice boxes gained $1.00 to $214.60 and Select boxes dropped $0.94 to $186.12. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter WTD through Wednesday at 350,0000 head, on pace with last week but down 4,000 head from last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction saw no sales on the 666 head offered, with asks ranging from $108-109. Country bids of $105 have been reported, with $110 asks.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures saw $1.10 to $2.35 gains in the front months on Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog Index rose $0.37 to $59.59 on Oct 7. The USDA pork carcass cutout value dropped $1.44 to close Wednesday at $76.01. The national average base hog value saw $1.65 gains on Wednesday, up to $53.90. FI hog slaughter for this week through Wednesday was 1.463 million head. That is down 71,000 head above last year’s weekly pace, even with Monday’s kill revised 5,000 head lower.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 6 to 20 points lower on Thursday after closing out Wednesday with 72 to 78 points gains in the front months. China’s Liu He and USTR Lighthizer join the talks in Washington today. Lui He will meet with President Trump Friday if talks go as planned, but some Chinese papers are reporting only a one day session due to lack of progress in the preliminaries. Weekly US export sales data will be out at 7:30 AM CDT. Traders are also awaiting production updates from NASS at 11 AM CDT. The Cotlook A Index remained 72.25 cents/lb for October 8. The AWP is 53.36 cents/lb and will be updated on Thursday.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!


Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.