Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Thu Nov 07, 4:56PM CST

Corn futures closed lower on the day, down by as much as 4 cents. USDA’s weekly export sales report this morning showed corn export sales were in line with conservative expectations, listed at 487,944 MT through the week ending 10/31. That is 11.1% lower wk/wk, but is up 15% over the previous 4 week average, which is now updated to 474,279 MT. Corn exports were 317,879 MT (12.51 mbu) to bring the accumulated exports up to 3.939 MMT (155.07 mbu). Accumulated exports continue to be below last year’s pace, currently 37.16%. The report also showed that China had purchased 123,000 MT of U.S. sourced Sorghum for the week. South Korea purchased 69,000 MT in a private export sale. Analysts are expecting tomorrow’s WASDE report to state U.S. corn yield and ending stocks to be 168.2 bpa and 1.929 bbu.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.75 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.83 3/4, down 4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.91, down 3 3/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn closed at $3.97 3/4, down 3 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybeans made double digit gains, closing Thursday with gains of 7 1/2 to 10 cents. Soybean meal gained $6.70/ton on the day; earlier this morning the USDA reported a private export sale to the Philippines of 133,000 MT of soybean meal for 19/20 delivery. Soybean oil lost 32 points on the day. The USDA reported a private export sale this morning of 136,000 MT of beans for 19/20 delivery to China. Weekly soybean export sales this morning were above traders’ expectations, listed at 1.807 MMT for the week ending 10/31. The sales were 91.5% higher than the depressed previous week, and 41% above the previous 4 week average. The export sales report stated that 1.559 MMT of beans were shipped through the same week, with was 9.5% below the week prior. Of the shipments 821,268 MT (52.66%) were destined for China. The PRC also purchased 956,268 MT of net new sales through the week. Soybean meal was expected to see export sales ranging 150,000 - 300,000 MT in the report, which stated 262,418 MT were in fact sold for the week ending 10/31. Soybean oil export sales were less than estimates, with 3,812 MT for the week ending 10/31. Tomorrows WASDE is anticipated to show that soybean yields and ending stocks for the U.S. to be 46.6 and 452 mbu.

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.25, up 10 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $9.36 1/2, up 9 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $9.48 3/4, up 8 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.60 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $305.60, up $6.70,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $31.43, down $0.32

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Nearby wheat contracts lost 3 to 4 1/2 cents on Thursday, with MLPS leading the way. US accounted for 46.1% of the weekly Japanese tender, having shipped 57,110 MT. The weekly Export Sales for wheat were 360,568 MT which was down 16.98% compared to last week’s sales and a 45.47% decline over the same week last year. FAS shows 408,500 MT of wheat was shipped out for the week ending 10/31; with the main destinations being Japan (20.95%), Philippines (15.91%), South Korea (15.59%), Mexico (13.17%), and Taiwan (12.44%). Accumulated exports through the first 22 weeks of the MY are 10.766 MMT, which is up 25.47% over last MY’s pace. Analysts are anticipating the WASDE to indicate world ending wheat stocks to be at 287.8 MMT.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.12 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.24 3/4, down 3 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.18 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were 17 to 32 cents higher after Thursday’s session. Nearby feeder cattle futures ended with $1.35 to $1.52 cent gains, save for Nov which lost 2 cents. The USDA’s weekly export sales report showed beef shipments’ of 15,833 MT. Japan and Taiwan were the leading destinations each with a 25.9% share. The accumulated exports for Beef are 672,502 MT, which is down 6.61%. The net new export sales were 10,127 MT for the week. The 11/05 CME Feeder Cattle index was up 2 cents to $146.26. Wholesale boxed beef prices higher again. Choice boxes are up another $1.15 to $238.29, and select boxes gained $1.49 to close at $213.02. The USDA has indicated a few dressed purchases @ $181- $182 in Nebraska. The USDA estimated cattle slaughter WTD is 470,000 head. The weekly cattle slaughter under federal inspection for the week ending 10/26 saw 640,269 head (0.83% above the same week last year) at an average dressed weight of 826 lbs. The Report showed the highest weekly cow slaughter since week 20 of 2013, and we are on pace to have the highest since that year.

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $119.175, up $0.175,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $125.000, up $0.300,

APR 20 Cattle closed at $125.875, up $0.325,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.775, down $0.025

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.775, up $1.350

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.500, up $1.525

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures gained 77 cents to $1.00 for the day, save for Dec futures which finished 47 cents lower. Net sales of 16,600 MT reported for the week ending 10/31 were 45 percent lower than the previous week, and 82 percent lower than the prior 4-week average. The weekly export sales report showed 33,545 MT were shipped, which was 3.2% above last week, and 32.7% above the same week last year. The updated CME Lean Hog Index dropped 20 cents, to $60.16 for 11/05. USDA’s pork carcass cutout value was 30 cents lower. The national average base hog price was was lower by 23 cents, closing at $45.21. The week to date USDA estimated Hog slaughter is 1.895 million head. The weekly hog slaughter under federal inspection for the week ending 10/26 saw 2,690,305 million head (4.97% above the same week last year) at an average dressed weight of 213 lbs.

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $64.300, down $0.475,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $73.775, up $1.000

APR 20 Hogs closed at $80.150, up $0.775

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures posted gains of 48 to 83 points. Cotton export sales were up 52.09% over last week, at 164,483 MT. With 129,682 rb shipped, cotton exports were lower than last week by 12.97% and were 14.11% lower than the same week last MY. However cotton accumulated exports as of 10/31 were 16.21% above last year’s pace. December options expire on Friday, driving some position squaring.. The Cotlook A Index for 11/6 was back up by 25 points, to 74.95 cents/lb. The AWP has been updated this afternoon to 56.63 cents/lb, lower by 70 points.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 64.17, up 48 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 65.91, up 64 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 67.18, up 72 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 68.39, up 83 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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